Articles tagged: cycles

Henrik Zeberg Says Bond Yields Will Collapse: The Cycle Thesis, Examined

Henrik Zeberg, the Swissblock strategist, is calling the most contrarian trade in the market: bond yields are about to collapse, the recession has already been signalled, and the bitcoin top is behind us. This episode states his cycle framework at full strength — inflation lags the labour market, and a payroll run-rate near thirty thousand sits where the previous eight recessions began — then sets it against the record. It reports where he beat the tape, concedes the credit-spread test he supplies that this series should have built itself, and marks the destination trades in dollars, gold and equities that have already turned against him. Where the mechanism holds and the clock is soft, this examination says so plainly.

The Freest Money: Does Bitcoin's Boom and Bust Confirm the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle?

A listener's proposition — that bitcoin is the only money in the world with no protection of any kind, and that its boom and bust should therefore be the Austrian business cycle running in the open — is tested here rather than admired, and it turns out to be half right in a way that is more interesting than being wholly right: the Austrian mechanism does run inside crypto, from the private stablecoin money backed by short-dated Treasury bills to a liquidation in 2022 that ran to completion with nobody rescued while the conventional banks were made whole the very next year, and yet the deepest busts were imported from the fiat system, the biggest leverage was borrowed from the bond market, and the drawdowns are getting shallower as the safety net bitcoin was built to escape arrives quietly from outside. The examination closes on what is supported, what is contradicted, what remains genuinely unresolved, and the four markers that would settle it.