Articles tagged: euro

Jack Mallers on Europe: Where the Case Breaks (Part 3 of 3)

The final part of our examination of Jack Mallers and Europe is where the case meets its limits. We name the three omissions inside his mechanism — an unused central bank backstop, France's excessive deficit procedure, and a central bank that has itself been tightening — and we test his timing against the central bank's own data, where the August calm sits in the middle of a range that held for forty-four months and the fracture arrives in October alongside a budget and a collapsed government. We correct the figure that cuts broadest, give him the yen, the direction and the dating, name the claim that cannot fail, and leave eight dated markers by which the argument settles itself in public.

macro europe euro dollar

Jack Mallers on Europe: The Record So Far (Part 2 of 3)

Part two of three turns the earlier verdict on Jack Mallers' debt-and-dollar thesis into a comparison. Where a working operator reading real-time markets and a series triangulating documents reach the same conclusion by independent routes, both readings get stronger — and on the roll, the interest bill, the fading foreign buyer and the direction of the debasement trade, they do. Then the record beside his older claims: yields, the mortgage rate, the deficit level and the size of the debt aged well; the eight point three trillion refinancing figure, the Asian surplus flow and the demographic share never confirmed; and the claim that no country survives debt above one hundred and thirty per cent of output is contradicted by Japan and Singapore.

macro europe euro dollar

Jack Mallers on Europe: The Case Examined (Part 1 of 3)

Jack Mallers, the founder of Strike, hosts a show arguing that the euro system breaks before the American one. This first pass states his case at full strength: a central bank that hiked into forty trillion dollars of debt, a refinancing bill that grows on its own arithmetic, an intervention that sold euros rather than dollars, and a France he calls the first crack. His numbers largely hold, and two pieces of evidence, the euro's fall of nearly five per cent against the yen and Japanese holdings of French bonds, are real. His motive for it all remains, in his own words, speculation.

macro europe euro dollar