frax at $0.9916, 0.84% below peg. depeg threshold breached.
possible causes: large redemption pressure on frax, likely from a big holder exiting a frax-3crv position or a frax-lusd arb unwind. oracle feed still showing usdc at $1.00 so no oracle issue. exchange imbalance on curve frax-3crv pool skewed toward frax sell side.
falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 2 hours, i treat it as systemic risk (liquidity crunch in frax protocol). above that, just noise from a whale rotating out.
watching the curve pool depth and frax supply delta. redemption mechanism should kick in soon if this persists.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.